Taiwan. The World Health Organization (WHO) assistant director-general ignored a point-blank question from a Radio Television Hong Kong reporter about Taiwan (the video is pretty damning, watch here). U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act which will no doubt rankle China but in practical terms does very little to change U.S. policy towards Taiwan (the act advocates for instance that Taiwan should be allowed in all international organizations for which statehood isn’t a requirement). Taiwan’s Foreign Minister invited American journalists recently expelled from China to set up shop in Taiwan.
What it means: That journalist invite is some expert level trolling from the Taiwanese FM. That WHO representative’s performance is abysmal and disheartening. The China Global Television Network (CGTN) exclaimed that the “U.S. bites off its own head by signing TAIPEI Act.” The newly signed TAIPEI Act is not a change in U.S. policy, but it is fair to ask whether a change in U.S. policy towards Taiwan is in the works. China’s strategy to isolate Taiwan is working, and the US will need to decide soon if it is willing to challenge China on the Taiwan issue or not, and if so, what price it is willing to pay. The time for half-measures and talk isn’t quite over yet...but it’s coming.
And now that you mention Taiwan...Wistron, a Taiwanese-based product design and manufacturing company and a significant supplier for Apple, announced that it expected to “lower revenues from its China-based sites to about 50 percent of company revenues in 2021.” The company is reportedly targeting India, Vietnam, and Mexico, and has set aside $1 billion to cover the costs of moving its supply chains over the next two years. Apple CEO Tim Cook told Bloomberg in late-February that Apple was not looking to make any quick moves out of China; in his words, “we’re talking about adjusting some knobs, not some sort of wholesale, fundamental change,” but the comments from Wistron’s Chairman Simon Lin suggest a bit more urgency.
What it means: I don’t want to overhype this; Wistron was already in the process of moving its production away from China; Apple had already said last year it was asking its suppliers to move 15-30 percent of production outside China because of the U.S-China trade war, and Apple is hardly the only company that has been making those changes. Even so, COVID-19 is accelerating this shift, and in some sense providing companies that were over-dependent on China a chance to reorient their supply chains. If COVID-19 is going to lead to economic losses anyway, companies should take the hit and diversify to shield themselves from future risks if they can.
Eastern Europe. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that “in difficult times nation states are the most important” and urged the EU to “prepare” the right aid package. Poland’s ruling government meanwhile passed a law on Saturday that allows postal voting for senior citizens and those in quarantine so that upcoming May 10 presidential elections do not have to be postponed. A Justice Commissioner at the European Commission told an erstwhile colleague that the EC would be watching Hungary with interest to assess whether its emergency measures violate EU laws. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that COVID-19 has demonstrated the EU’s “weaknesses” and that Hungary has received better help from “China and the Turkish Council” than the EU.
What it means: That is a lot to squeeze into one bullet, but it is all interrelated. Thus far I’ve been mostly focused on the north-south EU split on the controversial issue of common debt instruments, but Eurosceptic governments in Poland and Hungary are now also making themselves heard. There is a limit to how seriously I take those governments though. In Poland, for example, recent polls still record sky-high support for EU membership in the overall population. A Hungarian poll last year found that 69 percent of Hungarians would vote for EU accession again. We’ll see if those poll numbers decline based on how the EU responds to COVID-19, but I doubt it...and that means even more pressure on the EU to reform.
New York v. Rhode Island. A few days ago, Mississippi Gulf Coast towns were expressing concern about the spread of COVID-19 to their communities as a result of the fast-growing number of cases in nearby New Orleans. Today, Rhode Island took it to another level, dispatching the Rhode Island National Guard as well as state police to “stop motorists with New York license plates” and to go door-to-door “to find people who may have traveled recently from the state.” This comes on the same day that U.S. President Donald Trump commented he might impose a quarantine on “hot spots” in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut -- much to the surprise and chagrin of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who said the president told him nothing about a quarantine when they spoke earlier this morning.
What it means: Another example of the sorts of dynamics that usually define international politics affecting relations between U.S. states. Also a telling symptom of the lack of top-down leadership emanating from the White House right now, as state and local officials are using their powers to do what they think is best in the absence of consistent and coherent communication from the top.
Honorable mention:
I’m not a medical professional but I’m pretty sure umbrellas aren’t going to do the trick.
The Taliban successfully attacked numerous provinces in northern Afghanistan despite international calls for a global ceasefire to deal with COVID-19.
Russia is the latest country to close its borders, announcing that on Monday it will suspend all border crossings, including with Belarus.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that as of Monday, any person showing symptoms of COVID-19 will not be allowed to board a domestic flight or an inter-city passenger train.
Portugal’s Prime Minister called recent Dutch behavior blocking a more robust EU response to the economic impact of COVID-19 “repugnant.”
Japan says it is drawing up its “boldest-ever” stimulus package to respond to COVID-19.
Here is a video of two wild and crazy goats dancing to the Bee Gees. No, it’s not geopolitical. Yes, it’s wonderful. You’re welcome.