Top COVID-19 Developments 3/24/20
Brazil makes peace with China, Putin dons a hazmat suit...and pandas. What more could you want?
Brazil-China relations. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro called Chinese President Xi Jinping this morning to “reinforce bonds of friendship, exchange of information, actions on COVID-19 and expansion of commercial ties.” According to the Chinese account of the call, Xi told Bolsonaro that China was ready to assist Brazil in its battle against COVID-19.
What it means: It’s the first significant political contact between Brazil and China since Bolsonaro’s son tweeted harsh criticism of China’s handling of COVID-19 five days ago and compared China’s handling of COVID-19 to how the Soviet Union handled Chernobyl. China’s ambassador to Brazil demanded an apology for this allegedly “evil insult,” which Bolsonaro did not say he offered in his phone call with Xi. Bolsonaro came into office singing an anti-China tune, but he quickly back-tracked from that because China wants to invest in Brazil (especially because Brazil is a potential alternative for imports China needs like soy and other agricultural products) and because China is Brazil’s largest trading partner (19 percent of imports, 27 percent of exports last year). Brazilian government data released earlier today showed that Brazil’s economy was off to a slow start even before COVID-19 became an issue, so there’s a limit to how tough Bolsonaro can be.
China eases restrictions in Wuhan. Local authorities in Wuhan said that outbound travel restrictions will be lifted on April 8 after roughly two months of lockdown. People will only be allowed to leave the province if they possess a “green health code,” which signifies no contact with an infected or suspected COVID-19 person. Other parts of Hubei province are relaxing outbound transportation restrictions tomorrow, but only migrant workers with green codes and negative nucleic acid testing results will be allowed to leave the province. Schools are to remain shut indefinitely. Meanwhile, perhaps in response to news that asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 continued to be found in Wuhan, a Chinese epidemiologist at the Chinese CDC said the existence of such carriers will “not lead to further spreading of the disease although the risks remain.”
What it means: I’m keeping such a close eye on Wuhan because it was the first epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic and the first location to go to extreme lockdown measures. Even these reports however show what a different approach China is taking to COVID-19 containment -- can you imagine in the US having to submit your health status and provide test results proving that you don’t have COVID-19 to leave your country or state? It’s taken roughly two months to get the situation under control in Wuhan, but that’s a result of restrictions that most other countries would balk at. It’s strange that a Chinese expert is saying asymptomatic carriers don’t pose a significant threat, but evidently the Chinese government trusts its ability to be discerning about who is going to be allowed to travel outside of Wuhan and Hubei enough to relax restrictions somewhat.
The situation worsens in Russia. Confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Russia rose by 57 to 495. The mayor of Moscow told Russian President Vladimir Putin that the situation was worse than the official numbers indicated because a number of people have not been tested. Volkswagen announced it was halting car production in Russia because of supply shortages being caused by COVID-19. Putin traded in his shirtless horse-riding pictures for a svelt-looking hazmat suit.
What it means: Some headlines suggested Russia’s mayor was challenging Putin, but it’s worth keeping in mind that this was carefully choreographed -- watch the video and see for yourself. The bigger issue here is that even while Russia continues to show-off how much it is helping other countries (Russia delivered 10,000 COVID-19 test kits to Venezuela earlier today), the situation at home is getting worse. Just look at a chart of the confirmed cases in Russia -- the country is already looking at exponential-spread, and that’s with the government warning that the situation is likely much worse than the data is showing.
Welcome North Macedonia and Albania, the EU’s newest potential members. The European Union has decided to begin official accession negotiations with Albania and the Republic of North Macedonia. According to the Financial Times, the compromise that led to the agreement includes significant requirements for Albania to make electoral and judicial reforms. It also reportedly satisfies France’s desire for a smoother -- and easier to reverse -- accession process.
What it means: The EU was all set to begin accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia after North Macedonia literally agreed to change the name of its country to satisfy Greece last year -- only for France to block the move. France did not want to add more EU member-states until there was significant reform, or at least significant agreement on the need for reform, in the EU. The delay toppled North Macedonia’s government, and the country was supposed to have new elections on April 12...which have since been postponed due to COVID-19. This is another signal that the EU is pulling closer together, and that COVID-19 is accelerating the push.
US oil production cuts. As part of budget cuts, Chevron announced it was reducing 2020 spending by 20 percent to $16 billion. The biggest cut involves halving spending at the Permian Basin, America’s biggest shale region, and is projected to translate into 125,000 fewer barrels per day of oil produced -- about 2.5 percent of total current production.
What it means: It is easy to forget in the midst of the COVID-19 news that the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia is ongoing. There is no sign as yet that either Russia or Saudi Arabia are ready to compromise or cut production. While most of the news is focusing on potential bail-outs in the airline and even cruise (unreal) industries, it’s US energy companies, and especially shale producers, that are attempting to withstand not just the COVID-19 crisis but the Russia-Saudi oil price war...and with significant levels of debt coming due in the year ahead. If COVID-19 was not dominating the news, this would be -- it’s one of the biggest geopolitical developments in the last five years.
Honorable mention
Qi Zai, the world’s only captive brown giant panda, “succeeded in natural mating” with a female panda named An An; if, like me, you need a laugh today, the article and the photo choice for this momentous occasion is worth a look. Congrats, Qi!
A WHO spokesperson said the US had the “potential” of becoming the COVID-19 pandemic’s new epicenter; 40 percent of new cases in the last 24 hours came in the United States.
The Mexican government’s nonchalance regarding COVID-19 is worrying; President Andrés Manuel López Obrador reportedly told a crowd in Oaxaca over the weekend, “Don’t stop going out, I will tell you when you have to stay home.”
India finally launched a nation-wide lockdown to last 21 days commencing at midnight; India’s External Affairs Minister held talks with China and the EU on anti-COVID-19 cooperation.
Tengizchevroil is closing access to Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield.
Russia will publish a Chinese anti-COVID-19 guide on Wednesday.
Let the record show that my colleague and friend Phillip Orchard says that while he appreciates the newsletter, my basketball analysis is still sorely lacking. This is of course the same Phillip Orchard who thinks Trae Young is good at basketball even though he is arguably the worst defensive point guard in NBA history.