Peace in our week.
Reflections on a tumultuous 12 days
As suddenly as it began, the Israel-Iran war seems to have ended. A ceasefire, brokered by the United States and Qatar, has taken hold. It is fragile, perhaps even illusory—especially after President Trump, in a characteristically Trumpian flourish, declared that neither Israel nor Iran "knows what the fuck they're doing"1 after both sides of violated the ceasefire. But for now, the ceasefire is holding.
And so I’m left wondering: Wtf just happened? And what did it all mean?
Let’s start with what didn’t happen:
No regional or global war. (A few telegraphed shots at Qatar etc doesn’t count.)
No use of nuclear weapons.
No terrorist attacks in the West.
No oil shock or blockage of Strait of Hormuz.
No intervention by China or Russia.
No Iranian regime collapse.
Let’s dwell on that last fact for a moment. Considering how many senior Iranian officials were killed, the regime showed impressive resilience—absorbing the blows, coordinating a counterattack, and then agreeing to a ceasefire that leaves it bloodied, but standing. Perhaps the seeds for future popular dissent have been planted by the regime’s failure to deter attacks and protect Iran from Israel and the U.S…but for now, the regime appears shaky but in charge.
Of course, the real question about the future of the Iran isn’t whether it collapses tomorrow—but what it looks like five or ten years from now. But the very fact that the Islamic Republic maintained control through this escalation may strengthen the hand of those pushing for continuity. Perhaps by striking Iran, Israel gave the Islamic Republic the kick in the rear it needed to become more focused, innovation, and lethal. Wouldn’t that be ironic.
The war did clarify a few things:
1. Iran can’t trust the U.S.—or any security guarantee. Even if Tehran believed in a future deal with Washington, how can it trust the U.S. to restrain Israel? Iranians may not blame the regime for pursuing nukes — but rather for not pursuing them fast enough.
2. The world saw what power without nukes looks like. If you're a regime that fears regime change, you just got a demonstration. External strikes on nuclear facilities. Assassination of senior officials. Little pushback from the global community. You think Pyongyang didn’t take notes? Or Caracas? Or even Riyadh?
A tongue-in-cheek but not entirely unserious question: Should Panama be nervous? Or Denmark, again? Or any strategically located country sitting atop a critical node of global infrastructure, without nuclear weapons? If Trump wants to squeeze, he now has a playbook.
3. Liberation Day tariffs are supposed to be back on ~July 9, U.S.-China tariffs a month later. From real wars back to trade wars. Remember, before this all erupted, U.S. and Chinese officials were sitting down in London for trade talks. Now Commerce Department officials are talking about revoking waivers for Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC to export chip-making tools to China. But we’ve seen how Trump treats underlings like Tulsi Gabbard—he doesn’t reward them; he sidelines them. Trump wants a deal. He wants the handshake, the cameras, the “Only I could do this” moment. And that might be more likely in the trade arena than in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, while the media was focused on fireballs in the Middle East, the tectonic plates elsewhere continued to shift:
Germany is debating conscription. Chancellor Friedrich Merz wants the strongest conventional army in Europe. The last time that happened didn’t go so well.
European digital sovereignty is rising. Ecosia’s up. ProtonMail’s up. Berliners are lining up at charity booths to strip Google from their phones. There’s a backlash brewing, not against Silicon Valley’s tech but its political associations.
Italy and Germany are talking about bringing their gold home. The symbolism is striking. If you don’t trust the Fed to protect your bullion, how much do you really trust the U.S. to protect your sovereignty? (More on this likely next week.)
Japan is skipping NATO’s summit. The U.S. wants 3.5%+ percent of GDP on defense, and Japan isn’t biting. Tokyo also canceled high-level security talks set for July 1. No announcement of military support for U.S. strikes on Iran. Not even a token shipment of PlayStations.
So yes, the war between Iran and Israel was loud and kinetic and deadly. But it also ended quickly. The U.S. showed that it can still project force—but not that it can forge peace. Iran showed that it can absorb damage—but not that it can deter it. Israel showed strength—but also strategic limits.
This was a war that illustrated the contours of the multipolar world in which we live. Far from proving U.S. supremacy (the message this administration wants the world to take from its military prowess), it reinforces rising doubts about the U.S. as a reliable partner, the slow unraveling of American-led globalization, the decoupling—not just of supply chains, but of trust; above all, of a furious and unrelenting assault on international norms.
The fire is out…but the ground is still moving.
That is excellent analysis. I wish it informed U.S. policy.