Radiation Sickness

The Trump administration wants to make American great again. Things are going to go well until they don't.

I am sorry it has been a few weeks since I have had a chance to write. Keeping clients updated and the podcast machine fed, not to mention keeping up with my two little girls, has left little time for reflection.

In truth, though, I haven’t had much to say. The velocity of the Trump’s administrations flip-flops¹ on tariff policy make it impossible to keep track — even for me, and this is my full-time job! By the time a tariff announcement has been digested, there awaits a new tariff announcement, or an exemption to the previous announcement, or an executive order on shower heads. (Not kidding.) It is hard to summon the energy to sit down and type when you know that whatever you type will be OBE (overtaken-by-events) by the time you hit “send.”

If you think that’s hyperbole, look at this brief summary of just U.S.-China trade ties in the last ~2 weeks:

- Trump hikes China tariffs to 30%

- China does nothing

- Trump hikes China tariffs to 84%

- China responds with matching tariffs

- Trump hikes China tariffs to 145%

- China responds with matching tariffs, says it won’t retaliate further, calls U.S. policy a “joke”

- Trump admin says Xi should call Trump

- China does nothing

- Trump says he is ready to "make a deal"

- China does nothing

- Trump exempts semiconductors and other critical Chinese exports from tariffs

- China suspends exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets critical to auto, semiconductor, and aerospace sectors

-U.S. raises tariffs on China to 245% (TODAY)

Last Sunday, I recorded a podcast with my cousin-by-choice Marko Papic. We talked about Trump’s trade policy and Marko had a much more well-formed take than I did: Basically, that Trump was just going to make a bunch of deals and it was going to be marginally better for the U.S. and markets/pundits/investors were freaking out too much. I didn’t push back much in the episode and have been thinking about his argument ever since.

I think Marko is probably right — in the short-run. I would be surprised, for instance, if there isn’t a U.S.-China “Phase Two”-style trade deal by the end of the summer. I would be absolutely shocked if the USMCA isn’t renegotiated with agreement from all parties by the July 2026 review date. Ironically its U.S.-EU trade relations that I am most concerned about right now — I continue to think when historians look back at 2025, the most important thing they will identify is the irreparable break in Transatlantic relationship and history’s return to Europe.

But I think Marko is guilty of an analytical mistake he made after the Jan. 6 Capitol riots. That was another moment of geopolitical whiplash, and I remember at the time un-articulately exploring the notion that President Trump and his acolytes would use the failure on Jan. 6 to overturn an election result into a “stab-in-the-back” myth to return to power. I could not shake the feeling that Trump was not quite done.

I think a similar thing is happening now, except instead of this being a purely domestic issue, it is about the role of the U.S. and its power in the world.

The world has shifted to a multipolar environment — but the U.S. is still the wealthiest and most powerful country in the world. That means it can bully other powers like Colombia and Canada; can bomb the Houthis with reckless abandon; can impose serious pain on China and Europe if they won’t play ball. As a result, there will be a flurry of deals in the coming months. Administration officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will work to make sure markets don’t descend into crisis while President Trump works his “magic.” Foreign leaders will visit the Court of Mar-A-Lago and ingratiate themselves to President Trump to earn reprieves from tariffs and other special considerations.

The Court of Mar-A-Lago

The metaphor I have been using lately is that of a person suddenly exposed to a huge amount of ionizing radiation. A very high level of radiation exposure delivered quickly can cause immediate symptoms like nausea and vomiting, followed by other serious symptoms within days. After the initial symptoms pass, the exposed person will appear to improve. Symptoms will abate. But the improvement is only temporary. The radiation has damaged the body at the cellular level and compromised its ability to repair itself.

That is now my base-case for the U.S. I expect a short-lived recession — I don’t see how we avoid a recession because U.S. companies have basically halted investments and strategic moves while they wait for the tariffs to play out — followed by a flurry of trade deals and declarations of victory. Barring a financial crisis (not impossible, but not likely me thinks), the recession might be mild, and things will seem like they are getting better.

But European nations are not going to trust the U.S. anymore — they are going to do what they’ve been doing in the last few weeks — announcing massive moves to stimulate their economies, build their domestic defense complexes, and negotiate their own deals with countries like India and China. China will buy lots of stuff from the U.S…but it will also be looking for alternate markets and will continue to ascend value chains so that Chinese companies sell more to Chinese consumers, who themselves stop investing in ghost-cities and instead buy Chinese equities. Etc, etc.

Some countries won’t have these options — Mexico and Canada, for instance, are too intertwined with the U.S. Mexico in particular also stands too much to gain from the near-shoring phenomenon that will accompany the remaking of global supply chains already underway. (You’ll be hearing more about that from me in the coming weeks as I wrap up a major project on near-shoring.)

But other countries, like Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, and others not already mentioned here, will prepare for a multipolar world. I told an audience I spoke to last week not to lose heart — if this was the story of Joseph interpreting Pharaoh’s dreams, I’d argue we are right in the middle of the “seven years of plenty.” What may follow is seven years of famine — and those that will be successful during the hard years will be the ones that make targeted, bold, and creative moves now rather than waiting for the world to return to a status quo that is history.

As hopefully those of you reading know, I try to remain fastidiously objective when it comes to analyzing politics. It is an impossible goal, but hey, Sisyphus doesn’t get to stop from trying to push the boulder up the hill, such is his lot, and this career was my choice!

I asked ChatGPT to create an image of Sisyphus…if he was a geopolitical analyst. Not bad!

All of which is to say, please don’t read into any of my snark above a political position. I don’t have one. In fact, I can make an extremely strong argument that the Trump 2.0 administration is making strategically important moves. It is insane that we don’t build ships in this country (we’re supposed to have the strongest navy in the world!), that we are importing huge amounts of the ibuprofen I’m giving to my daughter for her ear infections from China and India, that we have an agricultural trade deficit…the list goes on (and is why the U.S. is underestimating the extent of China’s leverage in this trade war — President Trump’s role model William McKinley presided over an economy that looks more like China's today than ours!):

And yet, while I can make a full-throated defense of the strategic logic of the Trump administration’s policies, I can do nothing more than raise my hands in utter confusion at the way the Trump administration is rolling these policies out. And lest you think that is the wonky complaint of a nerd who just doesn’t understand the art of the deal, just understand that tactics do matter — that a policy can be the right strategic choice, but can end up being a mistake if it is implemented incompetently. (See: Iraq War 2.0, for which we are still paying dearly.)

The Trump administration is shooting itself in the foot in pursuing its own goals by the unpredictable and aggressive way it is rolling out these policies — it is creating enemies in countries that used to be friends. It is also only supporting one half of the puzzle — it is impossible to protect U.S. industry while not also shelling out massively at the federal and state levels to repair infrastructure, build new factories, and train the workers who are going to work in those factories. “Protect and Build” is a great strategy. What the U.S. has right now is “Tariff and DOGE.” It might look good at first, but there is only so much lipstick you can put on a pig before it becomes clear that you are indeed dressing up a pig.

—

If you are looking for more recent content from me, check out the following:

1. The Jacob Shapiro podcast — updated every week!

2. Geopolitical Cousins podcast — also updated every week!

3. My recent interview on the Unscripted podcast

4. My recent blog post for Bespoke

—

The People’s Daily “Most viewed in 24 hours” as of April 16, 8:13 am CT

1. Remember when “flip-flopping” was a serious enough issue that it basically killed John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign? President Trump flip-flops every other day!