Trump v. Harris Prediction
Can we get this over with already?
I often joke that one of the nice things about being a “geopolitical” analyst is that I usually don’t have to focus too much on the dumpster fire that is American domestic politics. Unfortunately, that has not been true this year, not necessarily because Trump and Harris are so different in terms of intent when it comes to foreign policy, but rather in terms of how they might implement their policies.
I know many find that surprising, but in substance I don’t see a lot of difference in Trump and Harris’s foreign and trade policies. They are both protectionist, America First ideologues — the difference is in their style. Trump likes tariffs, Harris likes incomes taxes. Trump, like George Washington, doesn’t like alliances. His administration won’t just go after China, it’ll go after the EU, Mexico, and anyone it feels is harming narrowly defined U.S. interests. Harris is more multilateral (though not without a streak of anti-alliance sentiment herself.)
(Also, for the record, tariffs are taxes, folks. Both of these candidates want your money. They just want to take it from you at different points in your wealth’s lifecycle. There is no fiscal conservative, free-trade candidate in this race…and all indications suggest more populism and free-wheeling spending and taxes to pay for it in the future.)
I am not a pollster. I did not think Donald Trump had a prayer of winning in 2016. In 2020 I didn’t really make a prediction, though I had a sense Biden might be able to eke it out due to his strength in key swing states. All of which is to say: Calling elections is not my expertise, I’m little better than all of y’all went it comes to reading polls and predicting election results.
Even so, that is a pretty unsatisfying answer when I am asked point blank after a speech, “So who do you think is going to win?” So I have to risk looking wrong and to offer an answer even if I significantly caveat my lack of confidence in the prediction.
The one thing geopolitical analysis does help me with here is that it makes me pretty good at identifying centers of gravity. Geopolitical analysis is good at finding the issue that is important — on the battlefield, that might be a particular technology or geography; in economic matters, it might be a particular issue, like wealth inequality or education; in trade, it might be the leverage one sector has over another due to resource dependency.
And here is what I think is the center of gravity of the upcoming U.S. election. In the words of a fellow Louisianian (not sure I’ve been here long enough to qualify as one but frack it, I’ve ridden out at least two hurricanes so I’m going with it):
I know I’m not breaking new ground here, but honestly, sometimes the hardest part of the work I do is to not get too cute with analysis. If you have to write a 100-page analysis on something to explain it, a) almost no one is going to take the time to read it, b) you probably could have simplified it more, and c) the time it took you to feel like you did enough reduced the value of the insights significantly.
So I’ve got just two charts to share with you as we barrel into election week, both from Gallup.
It may not always be about the economy — but it sure is in 2024, almost as important as it was in 2008. It is ultimately irrelevant whether voters’ concerns over the economy are legitimate/grounded in reality. E.g., I think the economy is actually doing well, so well that the Fed made a mistake cutting into strength. But with what I think and $3.15 you can get a cup of (absolutely disgusting) coffee at Starbucks.1 The electorate — more than half of it according to this poll — thinks the economy is “extremely important” and that is because they think it isn’t being managed well.
I don’t normally watch presidential debates — the last one I watched start-to-finish was when Obama made the dig at Romney about the army not having as many horses and bayonets as it used to when Romney was complaining about the number of ships in the U.S. Navy. (I was watching at a bar in Austin, TX with a largely liberal audience and boy did that room erupt when Obama made that quip.) But I watched the Harris-Trump debate because I had a sense it would be extremely important/revealing, and while I agreed with the consensus that she was better prepared, that she baited him into batshit crazy answers (they are coming for the dogs and the cats!), she failed in one big way: She talked about the economy like an android.
If she could have summoned the same eloquence and charisma displayed in her comments about women’s health in her remarks about the economy, this race might already be over. But she couldn’t, and she hasn’t found her footing on the economy as the sugar high from her hasty coronation wore off. The people Harris has to convince don’t care about Hitler or Beyonce. They care about the economy, stupid. And when it comes to the economy, they aren’t buying what Harris is selling.
Barring a major surprise, what this means is that the center of gravity all comes down to one relatively simple question: In the seven swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, is that ~9 percent advantage in a national poll about the candidates’ respective abilities to handle the economy going to translate into undecided/swing voters casting ballots for Trump over Harris at a 54--45 percent clip? If it does, Trump wins — and based on what I’ve read, heard, and seen whilst criss-crossing the country these past few months, I think (without a high confidence interval) that is the more likely scenario. It is the one I have been advising my clients to prepare for since March.
Last but not least: I don’t use my platform to endorse politicians or political views. I never will. Perfect objectivity is impossible but I like to think I get pretty close, and in my professional life perfect objectivity is the unattainable goal for which I strive. The only thing I feel strongly enough about to say that comes from a personal point of view is that everyone should vote. So vote for whoever you like, but vote. So much has been sacrificed so that you can, and in the wide scope of human history it is so rare for votes to matter, but in this time and place they do. So if you are an American reader and you look to me for direction, get off your butt and vote. I’ll see you out there.
Seriously who the fuck drinks that swill? It is abominable. If any of you know someone I could speak to Delta Airlines about revamping their coffee offerings on planes and the SkyClubs let me know. In the interim my wonderful wife has bought me a travel kit to bring my own grounds on trips with me, such is the depth of my hatred for Starbucks coffee.